What to Expect for Mortgage Rates in 2026

Are you thinking about buying a home in 2026? You’re probably wondering what will happen with mortgage rates next year.

Here’s what experts are predicting—and what it might mean for you.
 

Mortgage Rates Should Drop, But Not Dramatically

Good news: Mortgage rates are expected to go down a bit in 2026. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged about 6.62% in 2025, which was only slightly lower than the 2024 average of 6.72%.

Experts believe rates could end 2026 somewhere between 5.90% and 6.30%. This decrease could make it a little easier for people to afford homes.

Jake Krimmel, a senior economist at Realtor.com, explained that while the Federal Reserve’s decisions can lower some types of loans (like credit cards and auto loans), mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield instead.

So, even though the Fed cut rates in 2025, mortgage rates didn’t drop much—but are still expected to be lower in 2026 than in 2025.
 

Lower Rates and Higher Wages Could Help Homebuyers

Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist at the National Association of Realtors, says that even a slight drop in rates makes a difference—especially since wages for many people are rising faster than home prices for the first time in years.

A decrease of 0.5% to 0.6% combined with stronger income growth, could make homeownership more achievable for more Americans.
 

The Real Challenge: Affordable Homes

Even as mortgage rates dip a little, the bigger issue is the lack of affordable homes.

Evangelou estimates the U.S. is short by about 500,000 homes priced at or below $260,000—homes that most middle-income families could afford.

The supply of these homes will be crucial for making sure more people can truly afford to buy.

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